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# Machine Learning for Trading — 3rd Edition
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<!-- WEHUB_ZH_README -->
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> [!NOTE]
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> 本文档由 WeHub 基于上游 README 翻译整理,属于社区翻译,非官方中文文档。
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> [English](./README.en.md) · [原始项目](https://github.com/stefan-jansen/machine-learning-for-trading) · [上游 README](https://github.com/stefan-jansen/machine-learning-for-trading/blob/HEAD/README.md)
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> 原作者、版权与许可证归属以原始项目及本仓库 LICENSE 文件为准。
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**Build, test, and deploy ML-driven trading strategies — from data sourcing to live execution.**
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# Machine Learning for Trading — 第三版
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This repository hosts the code for [*Machine Learning for Trading, 3rd Edition*](https://amzn.to/4eigy2F)
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by [Stefan Jansen](https://www.linkedin.com/in/applied-ai/) — a ground-up
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rebuild, organized around one end-to-end workflow: how you define a research idea and develop it iteratively into a
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strategy you can actually run, and keep running, in a live market.
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**构建、测试并部署机器学习驱动的交易策略——从数据获取到实盘执行。**
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- [Nine case studies](https://www.ml4trading.io/case-studies/) illustrate the workflow throughout the 27 chapters of the
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book, from raw data through features, models, backtests, costs, and risk to deployment.
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- **Generative AI** and **autonomous agents** are new to this edition and cut across that workflow, bringing
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retrieval-augmented generation, knowledge graphs, and multi-agent systems to financial research.
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- The [companion website](https://ml4trading.io) features [112 primers](https://ml4trading.io/primer/),
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[56 agent skills](https://ml4trading.io/skills/),
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and [six production Python libraries](https://ml4trading.io/libraries/)
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that facilitate substantial parts of the workflow.
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本仓库托管 [*Machine Learning for Trading, 3rd Edition*](https://amzn.to/4eigy2F) 一书的代码,作者为 [Stefan Jansen](https://www.linkedin.com/in/applied-ai/) ——这是一次从零开始的重构,围绕一条端到端工作流组织:如何将研究构想定义出来,并通过迭代开发成一套能在真实市场中实际运行、并持续运行的策略。
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- [九个案例研究](https://www.ml4trading.io/case-studies/) 贯穿全书 27 章展示该工作流,涵盖从原始数据、特征、模型、回测、成本与风险到部署的完整路径。
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- 本版新增的 **生成式 AI(Generative AI)** 与 **自主智能体(autonomous agents)** 贯穿该工作流,将检索增强生成(retrieval-augmented generation)、知识图谱与多智能体系统引入金融研究。
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- [配套网站](https://ml4trading.io) 提供 [112 篇入门讲解](https://ml4trading.io/primer/), [56 项 agent 技能](https://ml4trading.io/skills/), 以及 [六个可用于生产的 Python 库](https://ml4trading.io/libraries/),可支撑工作流中的多个重要环节。
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<p align="center">
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<a href="https://amzn.to/4eigy2F"><img src="assets/cover.png" width="45%" alt="Machine Learning for Trading, 3rd Edition"></a>
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<a href="https://amzn.to/4eigy2F"><img src="assets/cover.png" width="45%" alt="Machine Learning for Trading, 第三版"></a>
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</p>
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## 🎓 New: Live Courses & Lightning Lessons
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## 🎓 新增:直播课程与闪电课
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For the first time, the third edition comes with a **live cohort course**, hands-on **workshops**, and free
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**lightning lessons** taught by Stefan on [Maven](https://maven.com/stefan-jansen) — full schedule on the
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[courses page](https://ml4trading.io/courses/).
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第三版首次配套 **直播同期班课程**、动手 **工作坊** 以及由 Stefan 在 [Maven](https://maven.com/stefan-jansen) 平台开设的免费 **闪电课** ——完整课表见 [课程页面](https://ml4trading.io/courses/).
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- **▶ [Machine Learning for Trading: From Research to Production](https://maven.com/stefan-jansen/research-to-production)**
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— the flagship live cohort course: take a research idea all the way to a deployed, monitored strategy, working
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through the book's end-to-end workflow with direct feedback. **The first cohort starts Monday, July 6, 2026 —
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enrollment closes Friday, July 3.**
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- **[Getting Stuff Done with Coding Agents](https://maven.com/p/8394ac/getting-stuff-done-with-coding-agents?utm_medium=ll_share_link&utm_source=instructor)**
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— a free lightning lesson on putting coding agents to work.
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- **[Building Multi-Agent Forecasting Systems](https://maven.com/stefan-jansen/forecasting-agents)**
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— a hands-on workshop on engineering the forecasting-agent loop: building auditable, debate-driven multi-agent
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systems for financial research.
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- **▶ [Machine Learning for Trading: From Research to Production](https://maven.com/stefan-jansen/research-to-production)** ——旗舰直播同期班课程:将研究构想一路推进到已部署、可监控的策略,在直接反馈下走完书中的端到端工作流。**首期班于 2026 年 7 月 6 日(周一)开课——报名于 7 月 3 日(周五)截止。**
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- **[Getting Stuff Done with Coding Agents](https://maven.com/p/8394ac/getting-stuff-done-with-coding-agents?utm_medium=ll_share_link&utm_source=instructor)** ——一节关于如何让 coding agents 投入实战的免费闪电课。
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- **[Building Multi-Agent Forecasting Systems](https://maven.com/stefan-jansen/forecasting-agents)** ——动手工作坊,讲授如何工程化预测智能体循环:为金融研究构建可审计、辩论驱动的多智能体系统。
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<p align="center">
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<a href="https://youtu.be/Ksxv9QVZSOo"><img src="assets/course-trailer.jpg" width="60%" alt="Watch the course overview: Machine Learning for Trading — From Research to Production"></a>
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<a href="https://youtu.be/Ksxv9QVZSOo"><img src="assets/course-trailer.jpg" width="60%" alt="观看课程概览:Machine Learning for Trading — From Research to Production"></a>
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</p>
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---
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## What's New in the Third Edition
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## 第三版有哪些新内容
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The whole book traces one path: from data infrastructure and strategy research, across an *evidence boundary* that
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separates tuning from evaluation, to deployment and monitoring — with a feedback loop that retrains, pauses, or
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retires a strategy as its edge decays.
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全书遵循一条统一路径:从数据基础设施与策略研究出发,跨越将调优与评估分开的 *证据边界(evidence boundary)*,直至部署与监控——并辅以反馈循环,在策略优势衰减时进行再训练、暂停或退役。
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<p align="center">
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<img src="assets/workflow.png" width="90%" alt="The ML4T workflow: data infrastructure and strategy research, an evidence boundary separating tuning from evaluation, and deployment with a retrain/pause/retire feedback loop">
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<img src="assets/workflow.png" width="90%" alt="ML4T 工作流:数据基础设施与策略研究、将调优与评估分开的证据边界,以及带有再训练/暂停/退役反馈循环的部署">
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</p>
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Where earlier editions moved technique by technique, the third edition runs that one process end to end — and adds
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substantial new material:
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早期版本按技术逐点推进,第三版则将这一流程端到端贯通,并新增大量内容:
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- **A wider model toolkit**: from gradient boosting (XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost) to deep time-series architectures
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(PatchTST, iTransformer, TSMixer, TCN, Mamba) and newer tabular and latent-factor models (TabPFN, TabM, conditional
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and supervised autoencoders).
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- **Dedicated strategy-design chapters**: transaction costs and risk management are now full chapters, neither of
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which existed before, joining portfolio construction and strategy synthesis so a raw signal is carried through to a
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sized, cost- and risk-aware portfolio.
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- **A full production track**: live trading systems (Interactive Brokers, Alpaca, QuantConnect), MLOps and governance
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(drift detection, safe rollout, circuit breakers, feature stores, experiment tracking), and the operational reality
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of *running* strategies, not just building them.
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- **Generative AI**: retrieval-augmented generation grounded in SEC filings, knowledge graphs and Graph RAG, and
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autonomous, multi-agent research systems.
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- **Causal machine learning**: Double ML, Bayesian structural time series, and causal discovery for separating real
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effects from spurious correlation.
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- **Reinforcement learning**: optimal execution, market making with inventory, and deep hedging.
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- **Synthetic financial data**: TimeGAN, Tail-GAN, Sig-CWGAN, and diffusion-based generators for validation when
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history is short.
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- **更丰富的模型工具箱**:从梯度提升(XGBoost、LightGBM、CatBoost)到深度时间序列架构(PatchTST、iTransformer、TSMixer、TCN、Mamba),再到较新的表格与潜因子模型(TabPFN、TabM、条件自编码器与监督自编码器)。
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- **专门的策略设计章节**:交易成本与风险管理现为完整章节(此前均未单独成章),并与组合构建、策略综合衔接,使原始信号一路贯通至经规模调整、成本与风险感知的组合。
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- **完整的生产化路径**:实盘交易系统(Interactive Brokers、Alpaca、QuantConnect)、MLOps 与治理(漂移检测、安全发布、熔断机制、特征存储、实验跟踪),以及*运行*策略(而非仅构建策略)的运维现实。
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- **生成式 AI**:基于 SEC 申报文件的检索增强生成、知识图谱与 Graph RAG,以及自主多智能体研究系统。
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- **因果机器学习(Causal machine learning)**:Double ML、贝叶斯结构时间序列(Bayesian structural time series)与因果发现,用于区分真实效应与虚假相关。
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- **强化学习(Reinforcement learning)**:最优执行、带库存的做市,以及深度对冲。
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- **合成金融数据**:TimeGAN、Tail-GAN、Sig-CWGAN 以及基于扩散的生成器,用于在历史数据较短时进行验证。
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Methodological rigor is treated as a first-class topic rather than an afterthought. The book draws an explicit line
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between exploration and confirmation — the *evidence boundary* — uses walk-forward cross-validation throughout, and
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confronts the multiple-testing and overfitting problems that quietly invalidate most backtests, with tools like the
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Deflated Sharpe Ratio, the Rademacher Anti-Serum, and White's Reality Check, plus conformal prediction for honest
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uncertainty estimates.
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方法论严谨性被作为一等公民主题,而非事后补充。本书明确区分探索与确认——即 *证据边界*——全书采用滚动前向交叉验证(walk-forward cross-validation),并直面悄然使大多数回测失效的多重检验与过拟合问题,借助 Deflated Sharpe Ratio、Rademacher Anti-Serum、White's Reality Check 等工具,以及保形预测(conformal prediction)以获得诚实的 uncertainty 估计。
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The data layer moves to **Polars** for fast, expression-based manipulation, and every chapter ships in **reproducible
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Docker environments** so results repeat across machines; PyTorch, LightGBM, Optuna, and Plotly round out the modeling
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and visualization stack.
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数据层迁移至 **Polars**,以实现快速的基于表达式的数据处理;每章均提供 **可复现的 Docker 环境**,确保结果在不同机器上可重复;PyTorch、LightGBM、Optuna 与 Plotly 共同构成建模与可视化技术栈。
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### Nine Case Studies
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### 九个案例研究
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The structural centerpiece of the third edition is **nine case studies** that run the length of the
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book. ETFs, crypto
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perpetuals, intraday equities, options, FX, futures, and equity factor panels are each carried through the *same*
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pipeline — from raw data and labels to features, models, backtests, costs, risk overlays, and a final deployment
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assessment. One disciplined process applied to nine very different markets shows where it works, where it breaks, and
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why.
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第三版的结构核心是 **九个案例研究**,贯穿全书。ETF、加密货币永续合约、日内股票、期权、外汇、期货与股票因子面板均经由*同一*流水线——从原始数据与标签到特征、模型、回测、成本、风险叠加,直至最终部署评估。将一套严谨流程应用于九个截然不同的市场,可展示其适用之处、失效之处及原因。
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| Case Study | Asset Class | Frequency | What It Explores |
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| 案例研究 | 资产类别 | 频率 | 探索内容 |
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|--------------------------|--------------------|-----------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
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| ETFs | Multi-asset ETFs | Daily | Cross-asset momentum and mean-reversion across 100 ETFs |
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| Crypto Perps | Crypto | 8-hourly | Funding-rate arbitrage on perpetual futures |
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| NASDAQ-100 | Equities | 15-min | Intraday microstructure signals from order flow and the LOB |
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| S&P 500 Equity + Options | Equities + Options | Daily | Equity selection enhanced with implied-volatility features |
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| US Firm Characteristics | Equities | Monthly | Firm-level characteristics panel (size, value, momentum, quality) |
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| FX Pairs | FX | Daily | Carry and momentum across major currency pairs |
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| CME Futures | Futures | Daily | Term-structure and roll-yield signals across commodity and financial futures |
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| S&P 500 Options | Options | Daily | Options-only strategies (straddles, delta-hedged positions) |
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| US Equities | Equities | Daily | Broad cross-section of US stocks with classic factor exposures |
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| ETFs | 多资产 ETF | 日频 | 100 只 ETF 的跨资产动量与均值回归 |
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| Crypto Perps | 加密货币 | 8 小时 | 永续期货的资金费率套利 |
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| NASDAQ-100 | 股票 | 15 分钟 | 来自订单流与 LOB 的日内微观结构信号 |
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| S&P 500 Equity + Options | 股票 + 期权 | 日频 | 以隐含波动率特征增强的股票筛选 |
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| US Firm Characteristics | 股票 | 月频 | 公司层面特征面板(规模、价值、动量、质量) |
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| FX Pairs | 外汇 | 日频 | 主要货币对的 carry 与动量 |
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| CME Futures | 期货 | 日频 | 商品与金融期货的期限结构与 roll-yield 信号 |
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| S&P 500 Options | 期权 | 日频 | 纯期权策略(跨式、delta 对冲头寸) |
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| US Equities | 股票 | 日频 | 美国股票广截面及经典因子暴露 |
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### 112 Primer Topics
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### 112 个入门主题
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Free concept explainers for every idea the book relies on. Each part links to its full list; a few topics show the
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range:
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为书中所依赖的每个概念提供免费讲解。各部分均链接至完整列表;以下若干主题展示其覆盖范围:
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- [Foundations](https://ml4trading.io/primer/): 8 topics spanning limit order book mechanics, bitemporal data models,
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and the stylized facts a simulator must reproduce.
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- [Research Design and Feature Engineering](https://ml4trading.io/primer/): 21 topics, including multiple testing in
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factor research, fractional differencing, and path signatures for financial sequences.
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- [Model Development](https://ml4trading.io/primer/): 22 topics, among them regularization geometry, conformal
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prediction in finance, and the mechanism behind double machine learning.
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- [Strategy Implementation](https://ml4trading.io/primer/): 27 topics, from the deflated Sharpe ratio and hierarchical
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risk parity to Almgren-Chriss optimal execution.
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- [Advanced AI](https://ml4trading.io/primer/): 8 topics such as Markov decision processes, the policy-gradient theorem,
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and proper scoring rules for event forecasts.
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- [Production](https://ml4trading.io/primer/): 2 topics, champion-challenger evaluation and training-serving skew with
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feature stores.
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- [Cross-cutting concepts](https://ml4trading.io/primer/): 20 building blocks referenced across chapters, for example
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momentum and mean reversion, the bias-variance tradeoff, and walk-forward validation.
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- [基础](https://ml4trading.io/primer/): 8 个主题,涵盖限价订单簿机制、双时态数据模型,以及模拟器必须复现的 stylized facts。
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- [研究设计与特征工程](https://ml4trading.io/primer/): 21 个主题,包括因子研究中的多重检验、分数差分,以及金融序列的路径签名(path signatures)。
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- [模型开发](https://ml4trading.io/primer/): 22 个主题,其中有正则化几何、金融中的保形预测,以及双重机器学习(double machine learning)的机制。
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- [策略实现](https://ml4trading.io/primer/): 27 个主题,从 deflated Sharpe ratio 与层次风险平价(hierarchical risk parity),到 Almgren-Chriss 最优执行。
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- [高级 AI](https://ml4trading.io/primer/): 8 个主题,如马尔可夫决策过程(Markov decision processes)、策略梯度定理(policy-gradient theorem),以及事件预测的正确评分规则(proper scoring rules)。
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- [生产化](https://ml4trading.io/primer/): 2 个主题:冠军-挑战者评估(champion-challenger evaluation),以及特征存储带来的训练-服务偏移(training-serving skew)。
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- [跨章节概念](https://ml4trading.io/primer/): 20 个在各章中引用的构建模块,例如动量与均值回归、偏差-方差权衡(bias-variance tradeoff),以及滚动前向验证(walk-forward validation)。
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### 56 Agent Skills
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Reusable, guard-railed tasks for coding agents, each with built-in defenses against lookahead bias, data leakage, and
|
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multiple-testing errors. Each category links to its full set; a few skills show the range:
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面向编码智能体的可复用、带护栏的任务,每项均内置针对前瞻偏差(lookahead bias)、数据泄露(data leakage)和多重检验错误的防护。每个类别链接到其完整技能集;以下列举部分技能以展示范围:
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- [Concepts](https://ml4trading.io/skills/): 10 skills, including lookahead bias, data leakage, and the information
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coefficient.
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- [Data Acquisition](https://ml4trading.io/skills/): 7 skills spanning fetching data, building bars, and data
|
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validation.
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- [Feature Engineering](https://ml4trading.io/skills/): 10 skills, among them computing features, triple-barrier labels,
|
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and feature selection.
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- [Evaluation & Validation](https://ml4trading.io/skills/): 8 skills, from walk-forward CV and purging-and-embargo to
|
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the deflated Sharpe ratio.
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- [Backtesting](https://ml4trading.io/skills/): 5 skills such as running backtests, cost models, and tear sheets.
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- [Portfolio Management](https://ml4trading.io/skills/): 5 skills, including position sizing, risk metrics, and kill
|
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switches.
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- [Infrastructure](https://ml4trading.io/skills/): 4 skills, for example the canonical schema, the registry system, and
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Polars patterns.
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- [Workflows](https://ml4trading.io/skills/): 5 skills covering factor research, model validation, and production
|
||||
readiness.
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- [Production](https://ml4trading.io/skills/): 2 skills, live trading and monitoring & alerting.
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||||
- [Concepts](https://ml4trading.io/skills/): 10 项技能,涵盖前瞻偏差、数据泄露和信息系数(information coefficient)。
|
||||
- [Data Acquisition](https://ml4trading.io/skills/): 7 项技能,涵盖数据获取、构建 bars 与数据验证。
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||||
- [Feature Engineering](https://ml4trading.io/skills/): 10 项技能,包括特征计算、三重障碍标签(triple-barrier labels)和特征选择。
|
||||
- [Evaluation & Validation](https://ml4trading.io/skills/): 8 项技能,从步进式交叉验证(walk-forward CV)与清除-禁运(purging-and-embargo)到收缩夏普比率(Deflated Sharpe ratio)。
|
||||
- [Backtesting](https://ml4trading.io/skills/): 5 项技能,例如运行回测、成本模型和 tear sheets。
|
||||
- [Portfolio Management](https://ml4trading.io/skills/): 5 项技能,包括仓位管理、风险指标和熔断开关(kill switches)。
|
||||
- [Infrastructure](https://ml4trading.io/skills/): 4 项技能,例如规范 schema、注册表系统和 Polars 模式。
|
||||
- [Workflows](https://ml4trading.io/skills/): 5 项技能,涵盖因子研究、模型验证和生产就绪。
|
||||
- [Production](https://ml4trading.io/skills/): 2 项技能:实盘交易与监控与告警。
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## The ML4T Libraries
|
||||
|
||||
The notebooks are built on six production Python packages, each documented and usable on its own — one per stage of
|
||||
the workflow:
|
||||
这些 notebook 基于六个生产级 Python 包构建,每个包均有独立文档且可单独使用——对应工作流的每个阶段:
|
||||
|
||||
| Library | Stage | What it does |
|
||||
|-------------------------------------------------------------|------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|
||||
| [`ml4t-data`](https://ml4trading.io/docs/data/) | Data | Unified market-data acquisition from 19+ providers behind one interface |
|
||||
| [`ml4t-engineer`](https://ml4trading.io/docs/engineer/) | Signal | Features, labels, alternative bars, and leakage-safe dataset preparation |
|
||||
| [`ml4t-models`](https://ml4trading.io/docs/models/) | Models | Finance-native latent factors, SDFs, direct prediction, and portfolio learning |
|
||||
| [`ml4t-diagnostic`](https://ml4trading.io/docs/diagnostic/) | Evaluation | Feature validation, strategy diagnostics, and the Deflated Sharpe Ratio |
|
||||
| [`ml4t-backtest`](https://ml4trading.io/docs/backtest/) | Strategy | Event-driven backtesting with realistic execution |
|
||||
| [`ml4t-live`](https://ml4trading.io/docs/live/) | Deployment | Production trading with broker integrations |
|
||||
| [`ml4t-data`](https://ml4trading.io/docs/data/) | Data | 通过统一接口从 19+ 家数据提供商获取市场数据 |
|
||||
| [`ml4t-engineer`](https://ml4trading.io/docs/engineer/) | Signal | 特征、标签、替代 bars,以及防泄露的数据集准备 |
|
||||
| [`ml4t-models`](https://ml4trading.io/docs/models/) | Models | 面向金融的潜因子、SDF、直接预测与组合学习 |
|
||||
| [`ml4t-diagnostic`](https://ml4trading.io/docs/diagnostic/) | Evaluation | 特征验证、策略诊断与收缩夏普比率(Deflated Sharpe Ratio) |
|
||||
| [`ml4t-backtest`](https://ml4trading.io/docs/backtest/) | Strategy | 具备真实istic 执行的事件驱动回测 |
|
||||
| [`ml4t-live`](https://ml4trading.io/docs/live/) | Deployment | 对接券商的生产级交易 |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
An introduction and a closing chapter bookend six workflow-aligned parts. Chapter titles link to their guides as
|
||||
each part is published; the rest are added part by part over the coming weeks.
|
||||
导言与收尾章节为六个与工作流对齐的部分作书脊。各章标题链接到对应指南,随各部分陆续发布;其余章节将在未来数周内逐部分添加。
|
||||
|
||||
## Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
### [1. The Process Is Your Edge](01_process_is_edge/)
|
||||
|
||||
Why process discipline beats model sophistication. Introduces the ML4T workflow as a research-to-production system,
|
||||
regime detection on factor returns and macro indicators, and the evidence boundary that separates exploration from
|
||||
confirmation.
|
||||
为何流程纪律胜过模型复杂度。将 ML4T 工作流介绍为从研究到生产的系统,涵盖因子收益与宏观指标上的制度识别(regime detection),以及区分探索与确认的 evidence boundary。
|
||||
|
||||
## Part I — Financial Data (Chapters 2–5)
|
||||
|
||||
The markets, instruments, and infrastructure the rest of the book builds on: a taxonomy of sources, raw exchange
|
||||
messages turned into feature-ready bars, point-in-time fundamentals, and synthetic histories for robust validation.
|
||||
全书其余部分所依托的市场、工具与基础设施:数据源分类体系、将原始交易所消息转化为可用于特征的 bars、时点(point-in-time)基本面,以及用于稳健验证的合成历史数据。
|
||||
|
||||
### [2. The Financial Data Universe](02_financial_data_universe/)
|
||||
|
||||
A taxonomy of market, fundamental, and alternative data. Surveys eight asset classes, quantifies survivorship bias,
|
||||
benchmarks storage formats (Parquet, DuckDB, kdb+, TimescaleDB), and establishes the data-quality framework used
|
||||
throughout the book.
|
||||
市场、基本面与另类数据的分类体系。调研八类资产,量化幸存者偏差(survivorship bias),对比存储格式(Parquet、DuckDB、kdb+、TimescaleDB),并建立全书沿用的数据质量框架。
|
||||
|
||||
### [3. Market Microstructure](03_market_microstructure/)
|
||||
|
||||
From raw exchange messages to feature-ready bars. Parses NASDAQ ITCH, reconstructs limit order books from multiple
|
||||
data sources, validates Lee-Ready trade classification, and compares bar-sampling methods — dollar bars deliver the
|
||||
best return normality.
|
||||
从原始交易所消息到可用于特征的 bars。解析 NASDAQ ITCH,从多数据源重建限价订单簿,验证 Lee-Ready 成交分类,并比较 bar 采样方法——dollar bars 带来最佳的收益正态性。
|
||||
|
||||
### [4. Fundamental and Alternative Data](04_fundamental_alternative_data/)
|
||||
|
||||
Point-in-time pipelines for SEC EDGAR filings, entity resolution across identifier systems, macro and commodity
|
||||
fundamentals, and alternative-data evaluation — including on-chain crypto fundamentals and prediction markets
|
||||
(Kalshi, Polymarket).
|
||||
面向 SEC EDGAR 申报文件的时点(point-in-time)流水线、跨标识符体系的实体解析、宏观与大宗商品基本面,以及另类数据评估——包括链上加密基本面与预测市场(Kalshi、Polymarket)。
|
||||
|
||||
### [5. Synthetic Financial Data](05_synthetic_data/)
|
||||
|
||||
Generating alternative market histories for robust validation. Implements TimeGAN, Tail-GAN, Sig-CWGAN,
|
||||
Diffusion-TS, and LLM-based tabular generation, evaluated through a fidelity–utility–privacy framework.
|
||||
生成替代市场历史以进行稳健验证。实现 TimeGAN、Tail-GAN、Sig-CWGAN、Diffusion-TS 与基于 LLM 的表格生成,并通过保真度–效用–隐私框架进行评估。
|
||||
|
||||
## Part II — Research Design and Feature Engineering (Chapters 6–10)
|
||||
|
||||
Define the trading problem, then turn data into model-ready signals: research design, labels, features, and the
|
||||
evaluation that determines what any model can learn.
|
||||
先定义交易问题,再将数据转化为可供模型使用的信号:研究设计、标签、特征,以及决定任何模型能学到什么的评估。
|
||||
|
||||
### [6. Strategy Research Framework](06_strategy_definition/)
|
||||
|
||||
Defining the trading game before building models: universe rules, decision schedule, cost model, evaluation
|
||||
protocol, and run logging. Introduces the nine case studies and the walk-forward cross-validation discipline that
|
||||
anchors Chapters 7–20.
|
||||
在建模之前定义交易博弈:标的池规则、决策日程、成本模型、评估协议与运行日志。介绍九个案例研究,以及贯穿第 7–20 章的步进式交叉验证(walk-forward cross-validation)纪律。
|
||||
|
||||
### [7. Defining the Learning Task](07_defining_the_learning_task/)
|
||||
|
||||
Label engineering (forward returns, triple-barrier, trend scanning), univariate feature evaluation (information
|
||||
coefficients, quantile analysis, feasibility screens), multiple-testing control (BH-FDR, Deflated Sharpe Ratio),
|
||||
and causal plausibility checks.
|
||||
标签工程(前瞻收益、三重障碍、trend scanning)、单变量特征评估(信息系数、分位数分析、可行性筛选)、多重检验控制(BH-FDR、Deflated Sharpe Ratio)与因果合理性检验。
|
||||
|
||||
### [8. Financial Feature Engineering](08_financial_features/)
|
||||
|
||||
Five feature families from price data (momentum, reversal, volatility, liquidity, microstructure), structural and
|
||||
cross-instrument features (yield curve, term structure, relative value), contextual features (macro regime, calendar,
|
||||
sentiment), and feature selection with robustness testing.
|
||||
来自价格数据的五类特征族(动量、反转、波动率、流动性、微观结构),结构与跨工具特征(收益率曲线、期限结构、相对价值),情境特征(宏观制度、日历、情绪),以及带稳健性检验的特征选择。
|
||||
|
||||
### [9. Model-Based Feature Extraction](09_model_based_features/)
|
||||
|
||||
Features from fitted models: stationarity diagnostics, Kalman filters, Fourier and wavelet spectral features, GARCH
|
||||
volatility, and HMM regime probabilities — with point-in-time correctness enforced throughout.
|
||||
来自拟合模型的特征:平稳性诊断、Kalman 滤波器、傅里叶与小波谱特征、GARCH 波动率与 HMM 制度概率——全程强制时点(point-in-time)正确性。
|
||||
|
||||
### [10. Text Feature Engineering](10_text_feature_engineering/)
|
||||
|
||||
From bag-of-words through transformers: TF-IDF, Word2Vec and GloVe embeddings, LSTM sequence models, FinBERT
|
||||
sentiment, financial NER fine-tuning, and news-return signal construction.
|
||||
从词袋到 Transformer:TF-IDF、Word2Vec 与 GloVe 嵌入、LSTM 序列模型、FinBERT 情绪、金融 NER 微调,以及新闻–收益信号构建。
|
||||
|
||||
## Part III — Model Development (Chapters 11–15)
|
||||
|
||||
Five model families applied to the same nine case studies, each building on the linear baseline.
|
||||
五类模型族应用于相同的九个案例研究,均以线性基线为起点。
|
||||
|
||||
### 11. The ML Pipeline
|
||||
|
||||
Regularized linear models (Ridge, LASSO, Elastic Net) as the baseline every later model must beat. Logistic
|
||||
regression for direction, SHAP interpretability, conformal prediction for uncertainty, and a cross-dataset
|
||||
comparison across all nine case studies.
|
||||
正则化线性模型(Ridge、LASSO、Elastic Net)作为后续所有模型必须超越的基线。用于方向的逻辑回归、SHAP 可解释性、用于不确定性的共形预测(conformal prediction),以及跨九个案例研究的数据集对比。
|
||||
|
||||
### 12. Gradient Boosting and Advanced Tabular Models
|
||||
|
||||
XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost with Optuna multi-objective tuning, plus deep-learning tabular alternatives (TabPFN,
|
||||
TabM). TreeSHAP explainability and cross-dataset results, where gradient boosting is the strongest tabular model in
|
||||
most case studies.
|
||||
XGBoost、LightGBM 与 CatBoost,配合 Optuna 多目标调参,以及深度学习表格替代方案(TabPFN、TabM)。TreeSHAP 可解释性与跨数据集结果;在多数案例研究中,梯度提升是最强的表格模型。
|
||||
|
||||
### 13. Deep Learning for Time Series
|
||||
|
||||
LSTM, N-BEATS, Transformers (PatchTST, iTransformer, TFT), TSMixer, TCN, and Mamba, set against the LTSF-Linear
|
||||
debate. A practitioner selection framework and cross-dataset evidence on when deep learning helps and when simpler
|
||||
models suffice.
|
||||
LSTM、N-BEATS、Transformer(PatchTST、iTransformer、TFT)、TSMixer、TCN 与 Mamba,置于 LTSF-Linear 争论背景下。实践者选型框架与跨数据集证据,说明深度学习何时有帮助、何时更简单的模型已足够。
|
||||
|
||||
### 14. Latent Factor Models
|
||||
|
||||
PCA eigenportfolios, IPCA with time-varying loadings, conditional and supervised autoencoders, adversarial SDF
|
||||
estimation, and yield-curve decomposition — with cross-dataset results on when latent factors add predictive value.
|
||||
PCA 特征组合、带时变载荷的 IPCA、条件与监督自编码器、对抗式 SDF 估计与收益率曲线分解——附跨数据集结果,说明潜因子何时增加预测价值。
|
||||
|
||||
### 15. Causal Machine Learning
|
||||
|
||||
Double Machine Learning for isolating factor treatment effects, Bayesian Structural Time Series for event impact, and
|
||||
causal discovery (PCMCI, NOTEARS, VAR-LiNGAM), applied across the nine case studies.
|
||||
双重机器学习(Double Machine Learning)用于隔离因子处理效应,贝叶斯结构时间序列(Bayesian Structural Time Series)用于事件影响,以及因果发现(PCMCI、NOTEARS、VAR-LiNGAM),应用于九个案例研究。
|
||||
|
||||
## Part IV — Strategy Implementation (Chapters 16–20)
|
||||
## 第四部分 — 策略实施(第 16–20 章)
|
||||
|
||||
From predictions to deployable strategies — backtesting, portfolio construction, costs, risk, and synthesis.
|
||||
从预测到可部署策略 — 回测、组合构建、成本、风险与综合。
|
||||
|
||||
### 16. Strategy Simulation
|
||||
### 16. 策略模拟
|
||||
|
||||
Backtesting as falsification: trading-protocol specification, vectorized vs event-driven engines, an ETF baseline
|
||||
strategy, core metric reporting, regime diagnostics, and strategy-level overfitting control (Deflated Sharpe Ratio,
|
||||
Rademacher Anti-Serum, White's Reality Check).
|
||||
将回测视为证伪:交易协议规范、向量化与事件驱动引擎、ETF 基准策略、核心指标报告、市场状态(regime)诊断,以及策略层面的过拟合控制(Deflated Sharpe Ratio、Rademacher Anti-Serum、White's Reality Check)。
|
||||
|
||||
### 17. Portfolio Construction
|
||||
### 17. 组合构建
|
||||
|
||||
From scores to portfolios: mean-variance optimization and its pitfalls, Hierarchical Risk Parity, the Kelly
|
||||
criterion, conformal position sizing, deep portfolio allocation, and a controlled allocator comparison across case
|
||||
studies.
|
||||
从得分到组合:均值-方差优化及其陷阱、层次风险平价(Hierarchical Risk Parity)、Kelly 准则、保形(conformal)仓位 sizing、深度组合配置,以及跨案例研究的受控配置器对比。
|
||||
|
||||
### 18. Transaction Costs
|
||||
### 18. 交易成本
|
||||
|
||||
Cost taxonomy, spread estimation, market-impact calibration, execution algorithms (VWAP, TWAP, Almgren-Chriss
|
||||
optimal execution), transaction-cost analysis, and practical guardrails — with breakeven costs that vary widely by
|
||||
asset class.
|
||||
成本分类、价差估计、市场冲击校准、执行算法(VWAP、TWAP、Almgren-Chriss 最优执行)、交易成本分析,以及实用防护栏 — 盈亏平衡成本因资产类别差异很大。
|
||||
|
||||
### 19. Risk Management
|
||||
### 19. 风险管理
|
||||
|
||||
VaR/CVaR tail measurement, drawdown and path-risk controls, factor and sector decomposition, stress testing,
|
||||
adaptive risk overlays, deep hedging, and kill switches. Overlay effectiveness turns out to be strategy-specific.
|
||||
VaR/CVaR 尾部度量、回撤与路径风险控制、因子与行业分解、压力测试、自适应风险叠加层、深度对冲(deep hedging)与熔断机制。叠加层的有效性因策略而异。
|
||||
|
||||
### 20. Strategy Synthesis
|
||||
### 20. 策略综合
|
||||
|
||||
What nine experiments reveal about translating ML predictions into strategies: IC–Sharpe decorrelation, Fundamental
|
||||
Law diagnostics, the model-family cascade, cost-survival analysis, holdout failure modes, and a practitioner's
|
||||
decision framework.
|
||||
九项实验揭示的关于将 ML 预测转化为策略的洞见:IC–Sharpe 去相关、基本定律(Fundamental Law)诊断、模型族级联、成本生存分析、留出集(holdout)失效模式,以及面向实践者的决策框架。
|
||||
|
||||
## Part V — Advanced AI (Chapters 21–24)
|
||||
## 第五部分 — 高级 AI(第 21–24 章)
|
||||
|
||||
Reinforcement learning, large language models, knowledge graphs, and autonomous agents for finance.
|
||||
强化学习、大语言模型、知识图谱,以及面向金融的自主智能体。
|
||||
|
||||
### 21. Reinforcement Learning for Execution and Hedging
|
||||
### 21. 面向执行与对冲的强化学习
|
||||
|
||||
MDP formulation for finance, DQN/PPO/SAC algorithms, optimal execution, market making with inventory management, deep
|
||||
hedging with PFHedge, inverse RL for strategy recovery, and the sim-to-real gap.
|
||||
金融领域的 MDP 建模、DQN/PPO/SAC 算法、最优执行、带库存管理的市场做市、基于 PFHedge 的深度对冲、用于策略恢复的逆强化学习(inverse RL),以及仿真到现实(sim-to-real)鸿沟。
|
||||
|
||||
### 22. RAG for Financial Research
|
||||
### 22. 面向金融研究的 RAG
|
||||
|
||||
Retrieval-augmented generation grounded in SEC filings: ingestion, domain-specific embeddings, hybrid retrieval with
|
||||
re-ranking, constraint-based prompting, RAG evaluation and failure diagnostics, and the transition to agentic
|
||||
workflows.
|
||||
基于 SEC 申报文件的检索增强生成(RAG):摄取、领域专用嵌入、带重排序的混合检索、基于约束的提示、RAG 评估与失效诊断,以及向智能体式工作流的过渡。
|
||||
|
||||
### 23. Knowledge Graphs
|
||||
### 23. 知识图谱
|
||||
|
||||
When graphs earn their infrastructure cost: KG construction from SEC filings, Graph RAG for multi-hop reasoning,
|
||||
graph features for ML (GNN embeddings, centrality, community detection), financial networks, and temporal-leakage
|
||||
prevention.
|
||||
图谱何时值得其基础设施成本:从 SEC 申报文件构建知识图谱(KG)、用于多跳推理的 Graph RAG、面向 ML 的图特征(GNN 嵌入、中心性、社区检测)、金融网络,以及时间泄漏(temporal-leakage)防范。
|
||||
|
||||
### 24. Autonomous Agents
|
||||
### 24. 自主智能体
|
||||
|
||||
Agent architectures (ReAct, Tree of Thoughts, Reflexion), memory systems, tool contracts, the engineering stack
|
||||
(LangGraph, Claude SDK), a stateful equity-research agent, multi-agent forecasting with adversarial debate, and
|
||||
production reliability.
|
||||
智能体架构(ReAct、Tree of Thoughts、Reflexion)、记忆系统、工具契约、工程栈(LangGraph、Claude SDK)、有状态股票研究智能体、带对抗性辩论的多智能体预测,以及生产可靠性。
|
||||
|
||||
## Part VI — Production (Chapters 25–26)
|
||||
## 第六部分 — 生产部署(第 25–26 章)
|
||||
|
||||
Taking strategies live — trading systems and the operational infrastructure that keeps them running.
|
||||
将策略上线 — 交易系统与保障其运行的运营基础设施。
|
||||
|
||||
### 25. Live Trading Systems
|
||||
### 25. 实盘交易系统
|
||||
|
||||
A unified framework bridging research and production: Interactive Brokers and Alpaca integration, managed platforms
|
||||
(QuantConnect), order-lifecycle management, pipeline verification, and operational readiness.
|
||||
连接研究与生产的统一框架:Interactive Brokers 与 Alpaca 集成、托管平台(QuantConnect)、订单生命周期管理、流水线验证,以及运营就绪。
|
||||
|
||||
### 26. MLOps and Governance
|
||||
### 26. MLOps 与治理
|
||||
|
||||
An ML failure taxonomy (pipeline divergence vs performance decay), drift detection, safe model rollout, circuit
|
||||
breakers, feature stores, experiment tracking, and the MLOps infrastructure financial ML systems need.
|
||||
ML 失效分类(流水线漂移 vs 性能衰减)、漂移检测、安全模型发布、熔断器、特征存储、实验跟踪,以及金融 ML 系统所需的 MLOps 基础设施。
|
||||
|
||||
## Conclusion
|
||||
## 结语
|
||||
|
||||
### 27. The Systematic Edge
|
||||
### 27. 系统化优势
|
||||
|
||||
The systematic philosophy, quant career paths, learning resources, research frontiers, and how to build your own
|
||||
edge. The closing bookend to Chapter 1: the process is the edge.
|
||||
系统化理念、量化职业路径、学习资源、研究前沿,以及如何构建你自己的优势。与第 1 章首尾呼应:流程即优势。
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Quick Start
|
||||
## 快速入门
|
||||
|
||||
These commands are typed into a terminal on your own computer, not into GitHub. New to the command
|
||||
line? Start with **[Before You Begin](docs/installation.md#before-you-begin)**.
|
||||
以下命令需在你自己电脑的终端中输入,而非在 GitHub 中输入。不熟悉命令行?请从 **[开始之前](docs/installation.md#before-you-begin)** 读起。
|
||||
|
||||
Run everything **from the repository root**. Clone and set up with Docker or a local `uv` environment:
|
||||
**从仓库根目录运行一切。** 克隆并使用 Docker 或本地 `uv` 环境完成设置:
|
||||
|
||||
```bash
|
||||
git clone https://github.com/stefan-jansen/machine-learning-for-trading.git
|
||||
@@ -366,70 +268,63 @@ docker compose pull ml4t # Option A — Docker (recommended)
|
||||
pip install uv && uv sync # Option B — local with uv
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
See the **[installation guide](docs/installation.md)** for platform-specific setup (Linux, Windows WSL2, macOS) and GPU
|
||||
instructions. Windows readers: WSL2 must be working *before* Docker Desktop is installed, and the
|
||||
reboot is not optional.
|
||||
平台相关设置(Linux、Windows WSL2、macOS)及 GPU 说明见 **[安装指南](docs/installation.md)**。Windows 读者:必须先让 WSL2 正常工作,*再*安装 Docker Desktop,且重启不可省略。
|
||||
|
||||
**Download data.** Most notebooks need datasets; start with the free ones (no API keys):
|
||||
**下载数据。** 大多数 notebook 需要数据集;先从免费数据集开始(无需 API 密钥):
|
||||
|
||||
```bash
|
||||
uv run python data/download_all.py --free-only
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
The **[data guide](data/README.md)** documents every dataset, API-key setup, the loaders, and storage tiers (≈70 MB
|
||||
free tier up to ≈7 GB full).
|
||||
**[数据指南](data/README.md)** 记录了每个数据集、API 密钥配置、加载器及存储层级(约 70 MB 免费层至约 7 GB 完整版)。
|
||||
|
||||
**Run notebooks.** Notebooks are paired [Jupytext](https://jupytext.readthedocs.io/) files (`.py` source + generated
|
||||
`.ipynb`). Run a quick smoke test, or open Jupyter Lab:
|
||||
**运行 notebook。** Notebook 与 [Jupytext](https://jupytext.readthedocs.io/) 文件成对(`.py` 源文件 + 生成的 `.ipynb`)。运行快速冒烟测试,或打开 Jupyter Lab:
|
||||
|
||||
```bash
|
||||
uv run python 01_process_is_edge/factor_regimes.py
|
||||
docker compose up -d ml4t # then open http://localhost:8888
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
See the guide to **[running notebooks](docs/running-notebooks.md)** for Papermill parameters and the experiment
|
||||
workflow.
|
||||
Papermill 参数与实验工作流见 **[运行 notebook 指南](docs/running-notebooks.md)**。
|
||||
|
||||
### Docker images
|
||||
### Docker 镜像
|
||||
|
||||
Most notebooks run on the default **ml4t** image; a few need a specialized one, and each such notebook says so in its
|
||||
preamble. Full details in the **[Docker environments guide](envs/README.md)**.
|
||||
大多数 notebook 在默认 **ml4t** 镜像上运行;少数需要专用镜像,各 notebook 会在前言中说明。完整说明见 **[Docker 环境指南](envs/README.md)**。
|
||||
|
||||
| Image | Covers | When you need it |
|
||||
|--------------|------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------|
|
||||
| `ml4t` | All 27 chapters + 9 case studies (CPU) | Default for everything |
|
||||
| `ml4t-gpu` | Same `ml4t` image, run with the NVIDIA runtime (`--profile gpu`) | Deep-learning chapters |
|
||||
| `ml4t-py312` | Python 3.12 for signatory, esig, gensim, pfhedge, tfcausalimpact | ~10 notebooks |
|
||||
| `benchmark` | Database clients (TimescaleDB, ClickHouse, QuestDB, InfluxDB) | Ch02 storage benchmarks |
|
||||
| `rapids` | RAPIDS cuML + LightGBM CUDA (build locally) | One Ch12 GPU benchmark |
|
||||
| `ml4t` | 全部 27 章 + 9 个案例研究(CPU) | 一切内容的默认选择 |
|
||||
| `ml4t-gpu` | 同一 `ml4t` 镜像,使用 NVIDIA runtime(`--profile gpu`)运行 | 深度学习章节 |
|
||||
| `ml4t-py312` | Python 3.12,用于 signatory、esig、gensim、pfhedge、tfcausalimpact | 约 10 个 notebook |
|
||||
| `benchmark` | 数据库客户端(TimescaleDB、ClickHouse、QuestDB、InfluxDB) | 第 02 章存储基准测试 |
|
||||
| `rapids` | RAPIDS cuML + LightGBM CUDA(本地构建) | 第 12 章一项 GPU 基准测试 |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Releases
|
||||
## 版本发布
|
||||
|
||||
New chapters and notebooks are added over the coming weeks. ⭐ Watch or star the repo to follow along, and subscribe to
|
||||
the twice-weekly [**Insights** newsletter](https://insights.ml4trading.io/).
|
||||
新章节与 notebook 将在未来数周内陆续添加。⭐ 关注或 star 本仓库以跟进进展,并订阅每两周一期的 [**Insights** 通讯](https://insights.ml4trading.io/).
|
||||
|
||||
**Looking for the second edition?** It is complete and stable on the `second-edition` branch —
|
||||
`git checkout second-edition`, and everything is exactly where the book describes it.
|
||||
**在找第二版?** 它已在 `second-edition` 分支上完整且稳定 —
|
||||
`git checkout second-edition`,一切内容与书中描述完全一致。
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Contributing and Feedback
|
||||
## 贡献与反馈
|
||||
|
||||
Found an error, a broken link, or have a suggestion? Early feedback is especially valuable before the book launches.
|
||||
发现错误、失效链接或有建议?在本书正式发布前,早期反馈尤为宝贵。
|
||||
|
||||
- **Issues**: [open a GitHub issue](https://github.com/stefan-jansen/machine-learning-for-trading/issues)
|
||||
- **Website and contact**: [ml4trading.io](https://ml4trading.io)
|
||||
- **Issues**:[提交 GitHub issue](https://github.com/stefan-jansen/machine-learning-for-trading/issues)
|
||||
- **网站与联系**:[ml4trading.io](https://ml4trading.io)
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## License
|
||||
## 许可证
|
||||
|
||||
Code: [MIT License](LICENSE) · Book content: © 2026 Stefan Jansen. All rights reserved.
|
||||
代码:[MIT License](LICENSE) · 书籍内容:© 2026 Stefan Jansen. All rights reserved.
|
||||
|
||||
<p align="center">
|
||||
<a href="https://amzn.to/4eigy2F">Get the book</a> •
|
||||
<a href="https://amzn.to/4eigy2F">获取本书</a> •
|
||||
<a href="https://ml4trading.io">ml4trading.io</a> •
|
||||
<a href="https://github.com/stefan-jansen/machine-learning-for-trading">GitHub</a>
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user