wehub-resource-sync
36 lines
1.9 KiB
Markdown
36 lines
1.9 KiB
Markdown
---
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allowed-tools: Read, Write, Edit, WebSearch
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argument-hint: [decision-context] | --strategic | --investment | --operational | --crisis-response
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description: Explore complex decision branches with probability analysis, expected value calculation, and optimization
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---
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# Decision Tree Explorer
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Explore complex decision scenarios with comprehensive probability analysis and optimization: **$ARGUMENTS**
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## Current Decision Context
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- Decision scope: Based on $ARGUMENTS (strategic, investment, operational, crisis response)
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- Available options: Current alternatives under consideration
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- Success criteria: Key metrics for decision evaluation
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- Resource constraints: Limitations affecting available choices
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## Task
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Create comprehensive decision tree analysis for optimal choice selection:
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**Decision Context**: Use $ARGUMENTS to analyze strategic decisions, investments, operations, or crisis responses
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**Decision Framework**:
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1. **Option Generation** - Comprehensive alternative identification including hybrid and innovative approaches
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2. **Probability Assessment** - Systematic likelihood estimation using base rates, expert judgment, and market data
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3. **Expected Value Analysis** - Multi-dimensional value calculation including financial, strategic, and risk factors
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4. **Sensitivity Analysis** - Critical assumption testing and break-even analysis
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5. **Risk Assessment** - Comprehensive risk identification, impact analysis, and mitigation strategies
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6. **Optimization Engine** - Multi-criteria decision analysis with stakeholder preference integration
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**Advanced Analytics**: Monte Carlo simulations, real options valuation, decision path optimization, and robustness testing.
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**Implementation Integration**: Connect analysis to specific actions, success metrics, and contingency planning.
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**Output**: Complete decision tree with probability-weighted outcomes, expected value calculations, risk assessments, and strategic recommendations with implementation guidance. |