quantconnect--lean/Algorithm.Framework/Portfolio/MeanVarianceOptimizationPortfolioConstructionModel.py

# QUANTCONNECT.COM - Democratizing Finance, Empowering Individuals.
# Lean Algorithmic Trading Engine v2.0. Copyright 2014 QuantConnect Corporation.
#
# Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
# You may obtain a copy of the License at http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
#
# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
# limitations under the License.

from AlgorithmImports import *
from Portfolio.MinimumVariancePortfolioOptimizer import MinimumVariancePortfolioOptimizer

### <summary>
### Provides an implementation of Mean-Variance portfolio optimization based on modern portfolio theory.
### The default model uses the MinimumVariancePortfolioOptimizer that accepts a 63-row matrix of 1-day returns.
### </summary>
class MeanVarianceOptimizationPortfolioConstructionModel(PortfolioConstructionModel):
    def __init__(self,
                 rebalance = Resolution.DAILY,
                 portfolio_bias = PortfolioBias.LONG_SHORT,
                 lookback = 1,
                 period = 63,
                 resolution = Resolution.DAILY,
                 target_return = 0.02,
                 optimizer = None):
        """Initialize the model
        Args:
            rebalance: Rebalancing parameter. If it is a timedelta, date rules or Resolution, it will be converted into a function.
                              If None will be ignored.
                              The function returns the next expected rebalance time for a given algorithm UTC DateTime.
                              The function returns null if unknown, in which case the function will be called again in the
                              next loop. Returning current time will trigger rebalance.
            portfolio_bias: Specifies the bias of the portfolio (Short, Long/Short, Long)
            lookback(int): Historical return lookback period
            period(int): The time interval of history price to calculate the weight
            resolution: The resolution of the history price
            optimizer(class): Method used to compute the portfolio weights"""
        super().__init__()
        self.lookback = lookback
        self.period = period
        self.resolution = resolution
        self.portfolio_bias = portfolio_bias
        self.sign = lambda x: -1 if x < 0 else (1 if x > 0 else 0)

        lower = 0 if portfolio_bias == PortfolioBias.LONG else -1
        upper = 0 if portfolio_bias == PortfolioBias.SHORT else 1
        self.optimizer = MinimumVariancePortfolioOptimizer(lower, upper, target_return) if optimizer is None else optimizer

        self.symbol_data_by_symbol = {}

        # If the argument is an instance of Resolution or Timedelta
        # Redefine rebalancing_func
        rebalancing_func = rebalance
        if isinstance(rebalance, Resolution):
            rebalance = Extensions.to_time_span(rebalance)
        if isinstance(rebalance, timedelta):
            rebalancing_func = lambda dt: dt + rebalance
        if rebalancing_func:
            self.set_rebalancing_func(rebalancing_func)

    def should_create_target_for_insight(self, insight):
        if len(PortfolioConstructionModel.filter_invalid_insight_magnitude(self.algorithm, [insight])) == 0:
            return False

        symbol_data = self.symbol_data_by_symbol.get(insight.symbol)
        if insight.magnitude is None:
            self.algorithm.set_run_time_error(ArgumentNullException('MeanVarianceOptimizationPortfolioConstructionModel does not accept \'None\' as Insight.magnitude. Please checkout the selected Alpha Model specifications.'))
            return False
        symbol_data.add(self.algorithm.time, insight.magnitude)

        return True

    def determine_target_percent(self, active_insights):
        """
         Will determine the target percent for each insight
        Args:
        Returns:
        """
        targets = {}

        # If we have no insights just return an empty target list
        if len(active_insights) == 0:
            return targets

        symbols = [insight.symbol for insight in active_insights]

        # Create a dictionary keyed by the symbols in the insights with an pandas.series as value to create a data frame
        returns = { str(symbol.id) : data.return_ for symbol, data in self.symbol_data_by_symbol.items() if symbol in symbols }
        returns = pd.DataFrame(returns)

        # The portfolio optimizer finds the optional weights for the given data
        weights = self.optimizer.optimize(returns)
        weights = pd.Series(weights, index = returns.columns)

        # Create portfolio targets from the specified insights
        for insight in active_insights:
            weight = weights[str(insight.symbol.id)]

            # don't trust the optimizer
            if self.portfolio_bias != PortfolioBias.LONG_SHORT and self.sign(weight) != self.portfolio_bias:
                weight = 0
            targets[insight] = weight

        return targets

    def on_securities_changed(self, algorithm, changes):
        '''Event fired each time the we add/remove securities from the data feed
        Args:
            algorithm: The algorithm instance that experienced the change in securities
            changes: The security additions and removals from the algorithm'''

        # clean up data for removed securities
        super().on_securities_changed(algorithm, changes)
        for removed in changes.removed_securities:
            symbol_data = self.symbol_data_by_symbol.pop(removed.symbol, None)
            symbol_data.reset()

        # initialize data for added securities
        symbols = [x.symbol for x in changes.added_securities]
        for symbol in [x for x in symbols if x not in self.symbol_data_by_symbol]:
            self.symbol_data_by_symbol[symbol] = self.MeanVarianceSymbolData(symbol, self.lookback, self.period)

        history = algorithm.history[TradeBar](symbols, self.lookback * self.period, self.resolution)
        for bars in history:
            for symbol, bar in bars.items():
                symbol_data = self.symbol_data_by_symbol.get(symbol).update(bar.end_time, bar.value)

    class MeanVarianceSymbolData:
        '''Contains data specific to a symbol required by this model'''
        def __init__(self, symbol, lookback, period):
            self._symbol = symbol
            self.roc = RateOfChange(f'{symbol}.roc({lookback})', lookback)
            self.roc.updated += self.on_rate_of_change_updated
            self.window = RollingWindow(period)

        def reset(self):
            self.roc.updated -= self.on_rate_of_change_updated
            self.roc.reset()
            self.window.reset()

        def update(self, time, value):
            return self.roc.update(time, value)

        def on_rate_of_change_updated(self, roc, value):
            if roc.is_ready:
                self.window.add(value)

        def add(self, time, value):
            item = IndicatorDataPoint(self._symbol, time, value)
            self.window.add(item)

        # Get symbols' returns, we use simple return according to
        # Meucci, Attilio, Quant Nugget 2: Linear vs. Compounded Returns – Common Pitfalls in Portfolio Management (May 1, 2010).
        # GARP Risk Professional, pp. 49-51, April 2010 , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1586656
        @property
        def return_(self):
            return pd.Series(
                data = [x.value for x in self.window],
                index = [x.end_time for x in self.window])

        @property
        def is_ready(self):
            return self.window.is_ready

        def __str__(self, **kwargs):
            return '{}: {:.2%}'.format(self.roc.name, self.window[0])