chore: import upstream snapshot with attribution
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wehub-resource-sync
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# QUANTCONNECT.COM - Democratizing Finance, Empowering Individuals.
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# Lean Algorithmic Trading Engine v2.0. Copyright 2014 QuantConnect Corporation.
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#
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# Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
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# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
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# You may obtain a copy of the License at http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
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#
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# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
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# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
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# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
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# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
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# limitations under the License.
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'''
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Energy prices, especially Oil and Natural Gas, are in general fairly correlated,
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meaning they typically move in the same direction as an overall trend. This Alpha
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uses this idea and implements an Alpha Model that takes Natural Gas ETF price
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movements as a leading indicator for Crude Oil ETF price movements. We take the
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Natural Gas/Crude Oil ETF pair with the highest historical price correlation and
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then create insights for Crude Oil depending on whether or not the Natural Gas ETF price change
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is above/below a certain threshold that we set (arbitrarily).
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This alpha is part of the Benchmark Alpha Series created by QuantConnect which are open
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sourced so the community and client funds can see an example of an alpha.
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'''
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from AlgorithmImports import *
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class GasAndCrudeOilEnergyCorrelationAlpha(QCAlgorithm):
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def initialize(self):
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self.set_start_date(2018, 1, 1) #Set Start Date
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self.set_cash(100000) #Set Strategy Cash
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natural_gas = [Symbol.create(x, SecurityType.EQUITY, Market.USA) for x in ['UNG','BOIL','FCG']]
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crude_oil = [Symbol.create(x, SecurityType.EQUITY, Market.USA) for x in ['USO','UCO','DBO']]
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## Set Universe Selection
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self.universe_settings.resolution = Resolution.MINUTE
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self.set_universe_selection( ManualUniverseSelectionModel(natural_gas + crude_oil) )
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self.set_security_initializer(lambda security: security.set_fee_model(ConstantFeeModel(0)))
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## Custom Alpha Model
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self.set_alpha(PairsAlphaModel(leading = natural_gas, following = crude_oil, history_days = 90, resolution = Resolution.MINUTE))
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## Equal-weight our positions, in this case 100% in USO
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self.set_portfolio_construction(EqualWeightingPortfolioConstructionModel(resolution = Resolution.MINUTE))
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## Immediate Execution Fill Model
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self.set_execution(CustomExecutionModel())
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## Null Risk-Management Model
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self.set_risk_management(NullRiskManagementModel())
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def on_order_event(self, order_event):
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if order_event.status == OrderStatus.FILLED:
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self.debug(f'Purchased Stock: {order_event.symbol}')
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def on_end_of_algorithm(self):
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for kvp in self.portfolio:
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if kvp.value.invested:
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self.log(f'Invested in: {kvp.key}')
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class PairsAlphaModel(AlphaModel):
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'''This Alpha model assumes that the ETF for natural gas is a good leading-indicator
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of the price of the crude oil ETF. The model will take in arguments for a threshold
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at which the model triggers an insight, the length of the look-back period for evaluating
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rate-of-change of UNG prices, and the duration of the insight'''
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def __init__(self, *args, **kwargs):
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self.leading = kwargs.get('leading', [])
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self.following = kwargs.get('following', [])
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self.history_days = kwargs.get('history_days', 90) ## In days
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self.lookback = kwargs.get('lookback', 5)
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self.resolution = kwargs.get('resolution', Resolution.HOUR)
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self.prediction_interval = Time.multiply(Extensions.to_time_span(self.resolution), 5) ## Arbitrary
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self.difference_trigger = kwargs.get('difference_trigger', 0.75)
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self._symbol_data_by_symbol = {}
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self.next_update = None
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def update(self, algorithm, data):
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if (self.next_update is None) or (algorithm.time > self.next_update):
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self.correlation_pairs_selection()
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self.next_update = algorithm.time + timedelta(30)
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magnitude = round(self.pairs[0].rate_of_return / 100, 6)
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## Check if Natural Gas returns are greater than the threshold we've set
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if self.pairs[0].rate_of_return > self.difference_trigger:
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return [Insight.price(self.pairs[1].symbol, self.prediction_interval, InsightDirection.UP, magnitude)]
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if self.pairs[0].rate_of_return < -self.difference_trigger:
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return [Insight.price(self.pairs[1].symbol, self.prediction_interval, InsightDirection.DOWN, magnitude)]
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return []
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def correlation_pairs_selection(self):
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## Get returns for each natural gas/oil ETF
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daily_return = {}
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for symbol, symbol_data in self._symbol_data_by_symbol.items():
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daily_return[symbol] = symbol_data.daily_return_array
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## Estimate coefficients of different correlation measures
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tau = pd.DataFrame.from_dict(daily_return).corr(method='kendall')
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## Calculate the pair with highest historical correlation
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max_corr = -1
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for x in self.leading:
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df = tau[[x]].loc[self.following]
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corr = float(df.max())
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if corr > max_corr:
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self.pairs = (
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self._symbol_data_by_symbol[x],
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self._symbol_data_by_symbol[df.idxmax()[0]])
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max_corr = corr
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def on_securities_changed(self, algorithm, changes):
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'''Event fired each time the we add/remove securities from the data feed
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Args:
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algorithm: The algorithm instance that experienced the change in securities
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changes: The security additions and removals from the algorithm'''
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for removed in changes.removed_securities:
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symbol_data = self._symbol_data_by_symbol.pop(removed.symbol, None)
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if symbol_data is not None:
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symbol_data.remove_consolidators(algorithm)
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# initialize data for added securities
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symbols = [ x.symbol for x in changes.added_securities ]
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history = algorithm.history(symbols, self.history_days + 1, Resolution.DAILY)
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if history.empty: return
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tickers = history.index.levels[0]
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for ticker in tickers:
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symbol = SymbolCache.get_symbol(ticker)
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if symbol not in self._symbol_data_by_symbol:
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symbol_data = SymbolData(symbol, self.history_days, self.lookback, self.resolution, algorithm)
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self._symbol_data_by_symbol[symbol] = symbol_data
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symbol_data.update_daily_rate_of_change(history.loc[ticker])
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history = algorithm.history(symbols, self.lookback, self.resolution)
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if history.empty: return
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for ticker in tickers:
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symbol = SymbolCache.get_symbol(ticker)
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if symbol in self._symbol_data_by_symbol:
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self._symbol_data_by_symbol[symbol].update_rate_of_change(history.loc[ticker])
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class SymbolData:
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'''Contains data specific to a symbol required by this model'''
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def __init__(self, symbol, daily_lookback, lookback, resolution, algorithm):
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self.symbol = symbol
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self.daily_return = RateOfChangePercent(f'{symbol}.daily_rocp({1})', 1)
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self.daily_consolidator = algorithm.resolve_consolidator(symbol, Resolution.DAILY)
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self.daily_return_history = RollingWindow(daily_lookback)
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def updatedaily_return_history(s, e):
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self.daily_return_history.add(e)
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self.daily_return.updated += updatedaily_return_history
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algorithm.register_indicator(symbol, self.daily_return, self.daily_consolidator)
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self.rocp = RateOfChangePercent(f'{symbol}.rocp({lookback})', lookback)
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self.consolidator = algorithm.resolve_consolidator(symbol, resolution)
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algorithm.register_indicator(symbol, self.rocp, self.consolidator)
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def remove_consolidators(self, algorithm):
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algorithm.subscription_manager.remove_consolidator(self.symbol, self.consolidator)
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algorithm.subscription_manager.remove_consolidator(self.symbol, self.daily_consolidator)
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def update_rate_of_change(self, history):
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for tuple in history.itertuples():
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self.rocp.update(tuple.Index, tuple.close)
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def update_daily_rate_of_change(self, history):
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for tuple in history.itertuples():
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self.daily_return.update(tuple.Index, tuple.close)
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@property
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def rate_of_return(self):
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return float(self.rocp.current.value)
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@property
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def daily_return_array(self):
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return pd.Series({x.end_time: x.value for x in self.daily_return_history})
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def __repr__(self):
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return f"{self.rocp.name} - {self.daily_return}"
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class CustomExecutionModel(ExecutionModel):
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'''Provides an implementation of IExecutionModel that immediately submits market orders to achieve the desired portfolio targets'''
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def __init__(self):
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'''Initializes a new instance of the ImmediateExecutionModel class'''
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self.targets_collection = PortfolioTargetCollection()
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self.previous_symbol = None
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def execute(self, algorithm, targets):
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'''Immediately submits orders for the specified portfolio targets.
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Args:
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algorithm: The algorithm instance
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targets: The portfolio targets to be ordered'''
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self.targets_collection.add_range(targets)
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for target in self.targets_collection.order_by_margin_impact(algorithm):
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open_quantity = sum([x.quantity for x in algorithm.transactions.get_open_orders(target.symbol)])
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existing = algorithm.securities[target.symbol].holdings.quantity + open_quantity
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quantity = target.quantity - existing
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## Liquidate positions in Crude Oil ETF that is no longer part of the highest-correlation pair
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if (str(target.symbol) != str(self.previous_symbol)) and (self.previous_symbol is not None):
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algorithm.liquidate(self.previous_symbol)
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if quantity != 0:
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algorithm.market_order(target.symbol, quantity)
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self.previous_symbol = target.symbol
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self.targets_collection.clear_fulfilled(algorithm)
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