W24 · 2026-06-08 → 2026-06-14

WEEKLY GROWTH REVIEW · DATA, KPI & FINANCE

Stars are up 18%.
Installs are flat.

Top-of-funnel is working. The leak is activation — only 31% of new installs create a first file within 24h, down 4 points WoW. Recommended move: fix the onboarding drop before we fund another awareness push.

Prepared by @growth · reviewed by @maya

THE NUMBER, PROVEN · KPIs

Stars up, installs flat, activation down

GitHub Stars
68.4K
▲ +18% WoW
New installs (Mac+Win)
4,120
— +2% WoW
D1 activation (1st file <24h)
31%
▼ -4 pts WoW
BYOK setup completion
58%
— flat WoW
Plugin installs
9,800
▲ +11% WoW
Discord signups
640
▲ +9% WoW
Agent-store listings
214
▲ +3 WoW
Weekly active projects
22,300
▲ +5% WoW

DRIVER TREE · STAR GROWTH BY SOURCE

Where the 18% came from

LAUNCH
Show HN: Open Design v2

Front-page 14 hours. Largest single referral spike of the quarter.

41% of stars
PRESS
3 YouTube creator reviews

Local-first + BYOK angle resonated; combined 210K views this week.

22% of stars
SOCIAL
r/programming thread

"Apache-2.0 Figma alternative" thread crossed 1.2K upvotes.

14% of stars
ORGANIC
GitHub Trending (daily, TypeScript)

Held a top-5 slot for 4 of 7 days without a paid or press trigger.

12% of stars
SOCIAL
X/Twitter thread on agent-native design

Single thread from a mid-size dev account, no boosting.

7% of stars
REFERRAL
Existing-user referrals + other

Long tail: forks, blog mentions, internal team shares.

4% of stars

FORECAST · NEXT 4 WEEKS

Installs plateau at ~4.15K/week without a fix

Decision: redirect the 4th paid-channel test budget into the onboarding rebuild.

target: 5.0K/wk
W18
W19
W20
W21
W22
W23
W24
W25e

*W25 is a forecast, not actuals. At the current activation rate, installs flatten near 4.15K/week regardless of new-visitor volume — the ceiling is the onboarding funnel, not awareness.

RISK TO THE FORECAST · 3 items

What could break the 4.15K plateau call

Step 2 (BYOK key entry) drops 42% of new installs

Funnel replay shows the single largest activation leak sits at the API-key prompt — most users bounce before entering any key.

owner: @onboarding · biggest lever · help wanted

Windows install friction is rising support load

Windows native remains best-effort (macOS/Linux/WSL2 are primary); ticket volume from Windows installs is up 22% WoW.

owner: @desktop · target: next week

No day-2 nudge exists for silent installs

Users who don't create a file on day 1 currently get no follow-up — we can't tell drop-off from delayed activation.

owner: @data · needs decision from @maya

RECOMMENDED MOVE · W25 plan

Fix activation, then re-test paid

@onboarding
Ship guided first-file wizard, replace blank canvastarget: 31% → 40% D1 activation
@docs
Inline 60-second BYOK setup video at step 2directly targets the 42% drop point
@growth
Hold the 4th paid-channel testredirect budget to onboarding rebuild this week
@desktop
Triage top 5 Windows install failure modesclears this week's rising ticket volume
@data
Instrument day-2 nudge emailcloses the silent-install blind spot

DECISION RECAP

Fix the leak
before we fund the funnel.

Stars: +18%. Installs: flat. Activation: the one number that moves the other two next week.

github.com/nexu-io/open-design questions → #growth-review