wehub-resource-sync
1 line
2.0 KiB
JSON
1 line
2.0 KiB
JSON
{"content": "---\nallowed-tools: Read, Write, Edit, WebSearch\nargument-hint: [decision-context] | --strategic | --investment | --operational | --crisis-response\ndescription: Explore complex decision branches with probability analysis, expected value calculation, and optimization\n---\n\n# Decision Tree Explorer\n\nExplore complex decision scenarios with comprehensive probability analysis and optimization: **$ARGUMENTS**\n\n## Current Decision Context\n\n- Decision scope: Based on $ARGUMENTS (strategic, investment, operational, crisis response)\n- Available options: Current alternatives under consideration\n- Success criteria: Key metrics for decision evaluation\n- Resource constraints: Limitations affecting available choices\n\n## Task\n\nCreate comprehensive decision tree analysis for optimal choice selection:\n\n**Decision Context**: Use $ARGUMENTS to analyze strategic decisions, investments, operations, or crisis responses\n\n**Decision Framework**:\n1. **Option Generation** - Comprehensive alternative identification including hybrid and innovative approaches\n2. **Probability Assessment** - Systematic likelihood estimation using base rates, expert judgment, and market data\n3. **Expected Value Analysis** - Multi-dimensional value calculation including financial, strategic, and risk factors\n4. **Sensitivity Analysis** - Critical assumption testing and break-even analysis\n5. **Risk Assessment** - Comprehensive risk identification, impact analysis, and mitigation strategies\n6. **Optimization Engine** - Multi-criteria decision analysis with stakeholder preference integration\n\n**Advanced Analytics**: Monte Carlo simulations, real options valuation, decision path optimization, and robustness testing.\n\n**Implementation Integration**: Connect analysis to specific actions, success metrics, and contingency planning.\n\n**Output**: Complete decision tree with probability-weighted outcomes, expected value calculations, risk assessments, and strategic recommendations with implementation guidance."} |