{
  "snapshot_id": "adversarial-calibration-and-family-drift",
  "date": "2026-04-01",
  "commit": "local-snapshot",
  "label": "Adversarial Calibration And Family Drift",
  "targets": [
    {
      "name": "yao-meta-skill",
      "winner_label": "Current",
      "winner_description": "Create, refactor, evaluate, and package agent skills from workflows, prompts, transcripts, docs, or notes. Use when asked to create a skill, turn a repeated process into a reusable skill, improve an existing skill, add evals, or package a skill for team reuse.",
      "winner_tokens": 65,
      "current_tokens": 65,
      "winner_holdout_fp": 0,
      "winner_holdout_fn": 0,
      "current_holdout_fp": 0,
      "current_holdout_fn": 0,
      "baseline_holdout_fp": 0,
      "baseline_holdout_fn": 0,
      "winner_blind_holdout_fp": 0,
      "winner_blind_holdout_fn": 0,
      "current_blind_holdout_fp": 0,
      "current_blind_holdout_fn": 0,
      "baseline_blind_holdout_fp": 0,
      "baseline_blind_holdout_fn": 0,
      "winner_blind_holdout_total_errors": 0,
      "winner_adversarial_holdout_fp": 0,
      "winner_adversarial_holdout_fn": 0,
      "current_adversarial_holdout_fp": 0,
      "current_adversarial_holdout_fn": 0,
      "baseline_adversarial_holdout_fp": 0,
      "baseline_adversarial_holdout_fn": 0,
      "winner_adversarial_holdout_total_errors": 0,
      "calibration": {
        "holdout": {
          "threshold": 0.33,
          "mean_positive_score": 0.672,
          "mean_non_trigger_score": 0.0,
          "mean_near_neighbor_score": 0.0,
          "min_positive_score": 0.468,
          "max_non_trigger_score": 0.0,
          "score_gap": 0.468,
          "threshold_margin": 0.138,
          "positive_threshold_buffer": 0.138,
          "negative_threshold_buffer": 0.33,
          "boundary_case_count": 0,
          "boundary_case_rate": 0.0,
          "risk_band": "healthy"
        },
        "blind_holdout": {
          "threshold": 0.33,
          "mean_positive_score": 0.399,
          "mean_non_trigger_score": 0.013,
          "mean_near_neighbor_score": 0.013,
          "min_positive_score": 0.392,
          "max_non_trigger_score": 0.026,
          "score_gap": 0.366,
          "threshold_margin": 0.062,
          "positive_threshold_buffer": 0.062,
          "negative_threshold_buffer": 0.304,
          "boundary_case_count": 2,
          "boundary_case_rate": 0.333,
          "risk_band": "watch"
        },
        "adversarial_holdout": {
          "threshold": 0.33,
          "mean_positive_score": 0.838,
          "mean_non_trigger_score": 0.0,
          "mean_near_neighbor_score": 0.0,
          "min_positive_score": 0.834,
          "max_non_trigger_score": 0.0,
          "score_gap": 0.834,
          "threshold_margin": 0.33,
          "positive_threshold_buffer": 0.504,
          "negative_threshold_buffer": 0.33,
          "boundary_case_count": 0,
          "boundary_case_rate": 0.0,
          "risk_band": "healthy"
        }
      },
      "family_health": {
        "holdout": {
          "family_count": 12,
          "clean_family_count": 12,
          "failing_families": [],
          "weakest_family": {
            "family": "workflow_to_skill",
            "pass_rate": 1.0,
            "errors": 0
          }
        },
        "blind_holdout": {
          "family_count": 6,
          "clean_family_count": 6,
          "failing_families": [],
          "weakest_family": {
            "family": "blind_operationalize",
            "pass_rate": 1.0,
            "errors": 0
          }
        },
        "adversarial_holdout": {
          "family_count": 6,
          "clean_family_count": 6,
          "failing_families": [],
          "weakest_family": {
            "family": "adversarial_summary_translation_collision",
            "pass_rate": 1.0,
            "errors": 0
          }
        }
      },
      "drift_note": "tokens stable; blind stable at 0; adversarial gate added with 0 errors; holdout stable at 0; adversarial calibration +0.834; risk n/a -> healthy",
      "ok": true
    },
    {
      "name": "team-frontend-review",
      "winner_label": "Current",
      "winner_description": "Review frontend code for accessibility, UI security, missing states, and UX regressions. Use when asked to review React components, run a pre-merge frontend review, or check a11y and unsafe rendering.",
      "winner_tokens": 50,
      "current_tokens": 50,
      "winner_holdout_fp": 0,
      "winner_holdout_fn": 0,
      "current_holdout_fp": 0,
      "current_holdout_fn": 0,
      "baseline_holdout_fp": 0,
      "baseline_holdout_fn": 0,
      "winner_blind_holdout_fp": 0,
      "winner_blind_holdout_fn": 0,
      "current_blind_holdout_fp": 0,
      "current_blind_holdout_fn": 0,
      "baseline_blind_holdout_fp": 0,
      "baseline_blind_holdout_fn": 0,
      "winner_blind_holdout_total_errors": 0,
      "winner_adversarial_holdout_fp": 0,
      "winner_adversarial_holdout_fn": 0,
      "current_adversarial_holdout_fp": 0,
      "current_adversarial_holdout_fn": 0,
      "baseline_adversarial_holdout_fp": 0,
      "baseline_adversarial_holdout_fn": 0,
      "winner_adversarial_holdout_total_errors": 0,
      "calibration": {
        "holdout": {
          "threshold": 0.48,
          "mean_positive_score": 0.681,
          "mean_non_trigger_score": 0.088,
          "mean_near_neighbor_score": 0.042,
          "min_positive_score": 0.49,
          "max_non_trigger_score": 0.211,
          "score_gap": 0.279,
          "threshold_margin": 0.01,
          "positive_threshold_buffer": 0.01,
          "negative_threshold_buffer": 0.269,
          "boundary_case_count": 1,
          "boundary_case_rate": 0.167,
          "risk_band": "tight"
        },
        "blind_holdout": {
          "threshold": 0.48,
          "mean_positive_score": 0.681,
          "mean_non_trigger_score": 0.177,
          "mean_near_neighbor_score": 0.226,
          "min_positive_score": 0.504,
          "max_non_trigger_score": 0.416,
          "score_gap": 0.088,
          "threshold_margin": 0.024,
          "positive_threshold_buffer": 0.024,
          "negative_threshold_buffer": 0.064,
          "boundary_case_count": 2,
          "boundary_case_rate": 0.333,
          "risk_band": "tight"
        },
        "adversarial_holdout": {
          "threshold": 0.34,
          "mean_positive_score": 0.71,
          "mean_non_trigger_score": 0.009,
          "mean_near_neighbor_score": 0.018,
          "min_positive_score": 0.544,
          "max_non_trigger_score": 0.035,
          "score_gap": 0.509,
          "threshold_margin": 0.204,
          "positive_threshold_buffer": 0.204,
          "negative_threshold_buffer": 0.305,
          "boundary_case_count": 0,
          "boundary_case_rate": 0.0,
          "risk_band": "healthy"
        }
      },
      "family_health": {
        "holdout": {
          "family_count": 6,
          "clean_family_count": 6,
          "failing_families": [],
          "weakest_family": {
            "family": "security_and_a11y",
            "pass_rate": 1.0,
            "errors": 0
          }
        },
        "blind_holdout": {
          "family_count": 6,
          "clean_family_count": 6,
          "failing_families": [],
          "weakest_family": {
            "family": "blind_premerge",
            "pass_rate": 1.0,
            "errors": 0
          }
        },
        "adversarial_holdout": {
          "family_count": 6,
          "clean_family_count": 6,
          "failing_families": [],
          "weakest_family": {
            "family": "adversarial_quality_gate_review",
            "pass_rate": 1.0,
            "errors": 0
          }
        }
      },
      "drift_note": "tokens stable; blind stable at 0; adversarial gate added with 0 errors; holdout stable at 0; adversarial calibration +0.509; risk n/a -> healthy",
      "ok": true
    },
    {
      "name": "governed-incident-command",
      "winner_label": "Current",
      "winner_description": "Build governed incident command packets. Use when asked to standardize incident review, run severity assessment, or assemble incident communication.",
      "winner_tokens": 37,
      "current_tokens": 37,
      "winner_holdout_fp": 0,
      "winner_holdout_fn": 1,
      "current_holdout_fp": 0,
      "current_holdout_fn": 1,
      "baseline_holdout_fp": 0,
      "baseline_holdout_fn": 2,
      "winner_blind_holdout_fp": 0,
      "winner_blind_holdout_fn": 0,
      "current_blind_holdout_fp": 0,
      "current_blind_holdout_fn": 0,
      "baseline_blind_holdout_fp": 0,
      "baseline_blind_holdout_fn": 1,
      "winner_blind_holdout_total_errors": 0,
      "winner_adversarial_holdout_fp": 0,
      "winner_adversarial_holdout_fn": 0,
      "current_adversarial_holdout_fp": 0,
      "current_adversarial_holdout_fn": 0,
      "baseline_adversarial_holdout_fp": 0,
      "baseline_adversarial_holdout_fn": 0,
      "winner_adversarial_holdout_total_errors": 0,
      "calibration": {
        "holdout": {
          "threshold": 0.48,
          "mean_positive_score": 0.367,
          "mean_non_trigger_score": 0.019,
          "mean_near_neighbor_score": 0.038,
          "min_positive_score": 0.08,
          "max_non_trigger_score": 0.058,
          "score_gap": 0.022,
          "threshold_margin": -0.4,
          "positive_threshold_buffer": -0.4,
          "negative_threshold_buffer": 0.422,
          "boundary_case_count": 0,
          "boundary_case_rate": 0.0,
          "risk_band": "overlap"
        },
        "blind_holdout": {
          "threshold": 0.48,
          "mean_positive_score": 0.899,
          "mean_non_trigger_score": 0.168,
          "mean_near_neighbor_score": 0.138,
          "min_positive_score": 0.798,
          "max_non_trigger_score": 0.386,
          "score_gap": 0.412,
          "threshold_margin": 0.094,
          "positive_threshold_buffer": 0.318,
          "negative_threshold_buffer": 0.094,
          "boundary_case_count": 1,
          "boundary_case_rate": 0.167,
          "risk_band": "healthy"
        },
        "adversarial_holdout": {
          "threshold": 0.34,
          "mean_positive_score": 0.827,
          "mean_non_trigger_score": 0.027,
          "mean_near_neighbor_score": 0.011,
          "min_positive_score": 0.654,
          "max_non_trigger_score": 0.056,
          "score_gap": 0.598,
          "threshold_margin": 0.284,
          "positive_threshold_buffer": 0.314,
          "negative_threshold_buffer": 0.284,
          "boundary_case_count": 0,
          "boundary_case_rate": 0.0,
          "risk_band": "healthy"
        }
      },
      "family_health": {
        "holdout": {
          "family_count": 6,
          "clean_family_count": 5,
          "failing_families": [
            {
              "family": "packet_assembly",
              "errors": 1,
              "pass_rate": 0.0
            }
          ],
          "weakest_family": {
            "family": "packet_assembly",
            "pass_rate": 0.0,
            "errors": 1
          }
        },
        "blind_holdout": {
          "family_count": 6,
          "clean_family_count": 6,
          "failing_families": [],
          "weakest_family": {
            "family": "blind_summary_only",
            "pass_rate": 1.0,
            "errors": 0
          }
        },
        "adversarial_holdout": {
          "family_count": 6,
          "clean_family_count": 6,
          "failing_families": [],
          "weakest_family": {
            "family": "adversarial_single_update_collision",
            "pass_rate": 1.0,
            "errors": 0
          }
        }
      },
      "drift_note": "tokens stable; blind stable at 0; adversarial gate added with 0 errors; holdout stable at 1; adversarial calibration +0.598; risk n/a -> healthy",
      "ok": true
    }
  ],
  "notes": [
    "recorded family-level blind and adversarial routing evidence",
    "published calibration and drift history for description optimization"
  ]
}
